The Meathead Tax

If there ever was a proposal that called for the proponents to put up a performance bond, it is The Pre-School Initiative. This initiative should be dubbed "The Wing and a Prayer Initiative."

It is difficult to look at the failing California school system and not support almost any initiative that promises any improvement in educational performance, but one must ask if expanding an already failing system, adding population while diluting the quality of teaching still further, will actually improve the process.

If that works, it may be the first time in history. I don’t think that there is already a surplus of good teachers and up-to-date facilities – and if there is, why do our children vie with Louisiana and Arkansas for reading scores? (Worse yet, Louisiana and Arkansas beat us in the latest National Report Card! But then so did almost every State except Hawaii!)

Even assuming that we could expand a failed system while increasing the quality – this initiative would not be the vehicle to do so. First, as experience has taught us over and over, all government programs expand logarithmically and not arithmetically, and every proponent of a new program vastly underestimates the cost as approximating the low end of any prediction.

The pre-school initiative in Quebec estimated the cost would be $230 million after five years – the actual cost after eight years is $1.7 billion.

The benefits as predicted by the proponents are equally suspect. In Chicago, where a RAND study is used to predict great things, graduation rates have indeed improved but still do not reach 50% among minority students. The RAND study is based on information gathered by Arthur Reynolds at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in his 2001 paper.

Harvard University Civil Rights Project already puts California Black drop-out rates at 50% and there is nowhere in the RAND report any suggestion that rate will go higher. It didn’t in Chicago even with their pre-school program that lasted several times as long as the one projected for California, according to the Reason Foundation.

Then there is the inherent problem in setting a tax increase only on one segment of the California society – the wealthy. At the same time that the Alternative Minimum Tax is causing maximum heartache in the nations tax schedule, here comes another "soak the rich scheme."

Just in case you have not followed the arcane argument on the Alternative Minimum Tax, it is pretty simple to explain. The Alternative Minimum Tax was instituted in 1970s to get a few hundred rich people who were not paying their ‘fair share."

Viola! Here we are a few years later, and inflation has set in, and the "soak the rich" scheme may effect 17 MILLION taxpayers!

Similarly, any tax specifically on the wealthy will inevitably encompass many more people as time goes on, and that will necessarily be needed as the costs exceed the estimate.

The Law of Unintended Consequences has not yet been repealed.

This Pre-school concept needs to be examined in a light other than "ANYTHING for the children." We are a State, County, and City government in DEEP debt, and hardly in a position to take on more costly programs. The rich will not stand for being further taxed, because the concept "That which you tax you have fewer of, and that which you subsidize you have more of" is an economic law that has not also been repealed.

We are about to have fewer rich people in this state – and we need them, and their taxes for other things.
Taxing the rich may become such a slippery slope to fund desirable programs that we drive the rich further to their out-of-state homes.

I am sorry, but people react negatively to pain! Compulsory Utopians believe in static economics, while dynamic economics is the rule. Compulsory Utopians need to remember the ill-fated 1990s Luxury Tax on boats and airplanes -- it not only did not produce more tax revenue – it actually drove boat-builders and aircraft makers out of business with the associated loss of jobs. The boat-builders alone laid off more than 25,000 people!

The 1990 Luxury Tax, supposedly on the rich, not only did not produce more tax revenue – it was an economic disaster that Legislators rushed to repeal, but not until many were hurt.

Those who support this ill-conceived so-called education legislation should be required to put their retirement checks at risk through a performance bond – because you can bet the farm that the results will not be as good as predicted, and the costs will be horrendous!

The supporters must not be able to once again, simply shrug and say, "Well our intentions were good.’

This State has sufficient non-performing educational assets to last a millennium!

The Meathead Tax

If there ever was a proposal that called for the proponents to put up a performance bond, it is The Pre-School Initiative. This initiative should be dubbed "The Wing and a Prayer Initiative."

It is difficult to look at the failing California school system and not support almost any initiative that promises any improvement in educational performance, but one must ask if expanding an already failing system, adding population while diluting the quality of teaching still further, will actually improve the process.

If that works, it may be the first time in history. I don’t think that there is already a surplus of good teachers and up-to-date facilities – and if there is, why do our children vie with Louisiana and Arkansas for reading scores? (Worse yet, Louisiana and Arkansas beat us in the latest National Report Card! But then so did almost every State except Hawaii!)

Even assuming that we could expand a failed system while increasing the quality – this initiative would not be the vehicle to do so. First, as experience has taught us over and over, all government programs expand logarithmically and not arithmetically, and every proponent of a new program vastly underestimates the cost as approximating the low end of any prediction.

The pre-school initiative in Quebec estimated the cost would be $230 million after five years – the actual cost after eight years is $1.7 billion.

The benefits as predicted by the proponents are equally suspect. In Chicago, where a RAND study is used to predict great things, graduation rates have indeed improved but still do not reach 50% among minority students. The RAND study is based on information gathered by Arthur Reynolds at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in his 2001 paper.

Harvard University Civil Rights Project already puts California Black drop-out rates at 50% and there is nowhere in the RAND report any suggestion that rate will go higher. It didn’t in Chicago even with their pre-school program that lasted several times as long as the one projected for California, according to the Reason Foundation.

Then there is the inherent problem in setting a tax increase only on one segment of the California society – the wealthy. At the same time that the Alternative Minimum Tax is causing maximum heartache in the nations tax schedule, here comes another "soak the rich scheme."

Just in case you have not followed the arcane argument on the Alternative Minimum Tax, it is pretty simple to explain. The Alternative Minimum Tax was instituted in 1970s to get a few hundred rich people who were not paying their ‘fair share."

Viola! Here we are a few years later, and inflation has set in, and the "soak the rich" scheme may effect 17 MILLION taxpayers!

Similarly, any tax specifically on the wealthy will inevitably encompass many more people as time goes on, and that will necessarily be needed as the costs exceed the estimate.

The Law of Unintended Consequences has not yet been repealed.

This Pre-school concept needs to be examined in a light other than "ANYTHING for the children." We are a State, County, and City government in DEEP debt, and hardly in a position to take on more costly programs. The rich will not stand for being further taxed, because the concept "That which you tax you have fewer of, and that which you subsidize you have more of" is an economic law that has not also been repealed.

We are about to have fewer rich people in this state – and we need them, and their taxes for other things.
Taxing the rich may become such a slippery slope to fund desirable programs that we drive the rich further to their out-of-state homes.

I am sorry, but people react negatively to pain! Compulsory Utopians believe in static economics, while dynamic economics is the rule. Compulsory Utopians need to remember the ill-fated 1990s Luxury Tax on boats and airplanes -- it not only did not produce more tax revenue – it actually drove boat-builders and aircraft makers out of business with the associated loss of jobs. The boat-builders alone laid off more than 25,000 people!

The 1990 Luxury Tax, supposedly on the rich, not only did not produce more tax revenue – it was an economic disaster that Legislators rushed to repeal, but not until many were hurt.

Those who support this ill-conceived so-called education legislation should be required to put their retirement checks at risk through a performance bond – because you can bet the farm that the results will not be as good as predicted, and the costs will be horrendous!

The supporters must not be able to once again, simply shrug and say, "Well our intentions were good.’

This State has sufficient non-performing educational assets to last a millennium!

Climate is More Than Just Temperature

San Diego has a terrific climate, if you mean the physical environment – but if you are a business considering moving here, or expanding, the business climate is often less than welcoming.

At least that is a common perception, and perception is reality.

A "bad business climate" was a theme when Governor Gray Davis was "abridged," and business climate is either true or not true depending upon a very personal cost/benefit analysis that is specific to a given company.
When I was the CEO of a TV station in Los Angeles, there was no benefit that could have been worth the cost of trying to move anywhere – many businesses are site specific. You can’t move them regardless of the cost or the benefit.

Other businesses make their decisions based on passing fads – or some times they threaten a decision to change a pending or actual decision. I sat in a meeting with the Akio Morita, then Chairman of Sony Corporation in the early 80s and he threatened, nay promised, to never extend the huge Sony plant in Rancho Bernardo or add another plant so long as the State intended to collect California State taxes based upon the international sales of the corporation. He said he was interested in a new plant, but with the unitary tax, he would place that plant in Alabama. He did.

This so-called "unitary multinational corporate tax" has always been a huge potential Golden Goose for the California Franchise Tax Board, and an anathema to multinational corporations.

But threats from business, particularly large corporations or collections of smaller companies have a "checks and balance" on governments that see every moving thing as a revenue enhancing object. The State, County, and City are always examining the statistics and the anecdotal news stories about the incoming, and leaving businesses. The government wants to get the maximum number of Golden Eggs without killing the Goose. We will never know how many jobs have been lost to this state because of the unitary tax.

Part of the obstacles to bringing a new business to San Diego are beyond anyone’s control – like the housing market – but some of the obstacles are political hurdles.

And no company considering moving here can ignore the problems facing their employees.

Traffic is one of them, a major one, and because San Diego is a horizontally populated area, moving people around – or more importantly NOT moving them, is a serious problem. A State, County, and City with huge deficits and facing borrowing to cover its past debts is in no condition to either increase the traffic flow or repair the roads that exist.

Employees from other parts of the country and considering moving with the country will provide needed continuity, but they face major problems in addition to the regular moving problems. Facing huge costs in housing, AND terrible traffic may just be too much. It certainly is limiting.

The business itself has similar problems when considering a move into the County…the same price and traffic problems – plus facing high permits and the potential for still higher ones with a State, County and City facing hard times. Local transportation and electricity costs are the highest in the mainland portion of the nation.

Add to this the fact that San Diego has a long history of failing to do the right thing, and it is this political history that does not auger well for a stable future. If history is any predictor of the future, San Diego is in for years of lawsuits, criminal charges, bond issues to cover the pension shortfall, a downtown library that looks to all the world like Edifice Complex, and politicians too busy with CYA to mind the store!

Our weather is beautiful, and I have lived here since Mission Valley was a dairy farm because of that weather, but moving a business here – I don’t think so. I can think of a number of large corporations who moved their corporate headquarters here – and then moved away. Not every business downturn is the fault of the local business climate, but it is often a contributing factor. Signal oil and Oak Industries come immediately to mind. Oak Industries, a Fortune 500 company moved from Illinois, and moved back there after less than a decade here. Gateway Computers is still here, having moved from the mid-west, but hanging on by fingernails.

There is no better example of a small business that became a fair sized business and moved away to greener pastures than Buck Knives. Buck Knives is nationally famous for their knives, and were a fixture in the County for decades. They moved to Idaho, where they reportedly thrive. One of the reported triggers for that move was energy costs.

Nevada has made several major pushes to lure away business that is in San Diego, to shortstop those companies considering moving here, and to see if any local companies considering expansion might consider instead going to Nevada.

There is a delicate balance in the business community, always somewhat in flux, between any given business staying or going. Going always has huge inertia to overcome before making that fateful decision, but sometimes it takes just one false move by a government that is one step too far.

Usually government is tone deaf, and is not aware when a bit more tax/permit cost is too much, or when a bit more impaired infrastructure is too much. When businesses overcome inertia and move4, there is usually some euphemism like, "It was the high cost of doing business"

Whether that means high transportation costs because we are far from their markets, or the cost of fuel or electricity is too high, or that government impedes their progress or their expansion…we simply do not know.

What we do know is that there is strong competition that keeps our economy in a positive, neutral or negative position as a business climate. Right now there is a growing lack of confidence in the political structure of San Diego.

Unpredictability is the current major obstacle to economic growth and only time can solve that situation, but the cost/benefit analysis goes on daily in every business.

Tut-Tutters

Somewhere, deeper in the soul than I can fathom, the doomsayers (historically noted by Chicken Little in our youth) have a great need to prepare for the end. At various times there are various reasons for "the end."

In 1974 it was "Global Cooling."

Do you remember the "Coming Stock Market Crash" books of our youth? The only people who made money was the authors of the books! The latest is Rich Dad, Poor Dad…

If you want to make REAL money, write a "doom" book – or see a burning bush…

And, eventually, all of the Doomsayers are right…calamity does happen. All who predicted a Katrina in New Orleans were (eventually) correct. It can be counted on to happen, but has everyone forgotten Y2K? Great predicted calamity – great fizzle. People spent gazillions of $$$$$$$$$ on that hoax…there was just enough truth to the fear to cause near global panic! (My preparation, after a lifetime of computer science, was to turn off my computer on New Years Eve….)

Some Near to the Enders are religious fanatics, some secular "survivalists," and some are neither but see "global warming" as the vehicle for exercising control.

(There is a subset of the "control" group who would not appreciate "control" as their philosophy, they simply do not like the way their neighbors live – the size of their house, or driving an SUV, or bling-bling, or hunting/fishing…I call them "Tut-Tutters." There is no larger group of identifiable people in the world than "Tut-Tutters.")

There is a difference between expressing a vagrant opinion on a subject and actually putting your name and reputation on the line by putting your name in the Congressional Record with a public vote. Hence the three votes recently for "immediate" withdrawal from Iraq – or the ZERO Senate votes for Kyoto Protocols.

Former President Clinton had three solid years to push for Kyoto during his Presidency and he could have sent the Protocols to the Senate – but he did neither. He kept his powder dry and simply uses the subject to beat the Bush Administration, with full knowledge that everyone in the Main Stream Media will ignore his hypocrisy.

But "everyone in the MSM" is no longer "everyone."

Too many alternatives for information, and reminders. Too much historical knowledge.

Left Trashes Hillary

The San Diego Union was once a reliable conservative newspaper, and perhaps it will someday be again as the LA Times moves to the right under circulation pressure, but today the Union is at least reliably left of center.

But the Union has taken note of the anger within the Democratic Party – as in the Congressman from South Dakota who today told Democratic Party Chief Howard Dean to "Shut UP!"

In particular, the Union has focused on the left’s attempts to shout down the doyen of the Democratic Party, Senator Hillary Clinton because she voted for the Iraqi war.

This is the first paragraph of the editorial, which examines the obvious problem for Democrats…caused by the "White Flag" wing of their Party.

"A peculiar thing is happening on the left of the American political spectrum. The intensity of many liberals' opposition to the Bush administration and the U.S. war in Iraq – so strong that by 2003 comparisons of George W. Bush and Adolf Hitler had become passé– in faculty lounges and on leftist Web sites – has now taken a new form: a continuous attempt to purge the Democratic Party of anyone who doesn't believe we're living under the Fourth Reich."

To read more of the interesting editorial, click on this link…

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20051209/news_lz1ed9bottom.html

Kyoto Protocols. (Again?)

Jerry: Somewhere, deeper in the soul than I can fathom, the doomsayers (historically noted by Chicken Little in our youth) have a great need to prepare for the end. At various times there are various reasons for "the end."

In 1974 it was "Global Cooling."

Do you remember the "Coming Stock Market Crash" books of our youth? The only people who made money was the authors of the books! The latest is Rich Dad, Poor Dad…

If you want to make REAL money, write a "doom" book – or see a burning bush…

And, eventually, all of the Doomsayers are right…calamity does happen. All who predicted a Katrina in New Orleans were (eventually) correct. It can be counted on to happen, but has everyone forgotten Y2K? Great predicted calamity – great fizzle. People spent gazillions of $$$$$$$$$ on that hoax…there was just enough truth to the fear to cause near global panic!

(My preparation, after a lifetime of computer science, was to turn off my computer on New Years Eve….)

Some Near to the Enders are religious fanatics, some secular "survivalists," and some are neither but see "global warming" as the vehicle for exercising control. (There is a subset of the "control" group who would not appreciate "control" as their philosophy, they simply do not like the way their neighbors live – the size of their house, or driving an SUV, or bling-bling, or hunting/fishing…I call them "Tut-Tutters."

There is no larger group of identifiable people in the world than "Tut-Tutters.")

But, there is a difference between expressing a vagrant opinion on a subject and actually putting your name and reputation on the line by putting your name in the Congressional Record with a public vote. Hence the three votes recently for "immediate" withdrawal from Iraq – or the ZERO Senate votes for Kyoto Protocols.

Former President Clinton had three solid years to push for Kyoto during his Presidency and he could have sent the Protocols to the Senate – but he did neither. He kept his powder dry and simply uses the subject to beat the Bush Administration, with full knowledge that everyone in the Main Stream Media (MSM) will ignore his hypocrisy.

But "everyone in the MSM" is no longer "everyone." Too many alternatives for information, and reminders. Too much historical knowledge.

The Teacher Tenure Problem

Let me admit that I have no clue as to how many of the 330,000 California teachers are fired each year for professional incompetence, but you can bet the answer is far fewer than the number of incompetent teachers.

Since no one is doing that California investigation, perhaps we can learn something from Illinois.

Thanks to a small chain of community newspapers which filed 1,500 requests for various public records with all the public school districts, we have a window into Illinois.

The bottom line is that, over an 18-year span, 93% of the school districts never filed a suit to fire a tenured teacher! Over that 18-year period within the state, only an average of two tenured teachers a year were fired out of the 95,000 teachers in the state. In the past decade, 83% of Illinois school districts have not rated a single unsatisfactory complaint against an incompetent teacher!

I do not know what the "law of averages" says about how many of any population of 95,000 are likely to go stark raving mad each year, but you can bet it is more than two! That same "law" will tell you that there will be far more than two cases of sexual misconduct with students! You can imagine an easy 20 categories of incompetence/misconduct that would get any normal person fired in a New York second, and a lot more than two per 95,000 each year!

The head of the teachers union in Illinois says that the idea that you can’t fire a tenured teacher is "an urban legend."

Doesn’t sound like it to me! In fact, even if the firing is effective, it can lead to years of litigation.

There is the ongoing Illinois case of Cecil Roth, an algebra teacher who has been tying up the courts with lawsuits over his firing since 1998, at a cost to the taxpayers of $400,000 and counting.

One court said of Mr. Roth’s filings, "His pleadings seek to vilify rather than state facts" and "Instead of being concise, they are rambling gibberish, filledwith outlandish and preposterous accusations and conclusions…"

Another judge said, "Roth is engaging in litigation terrorism. He is attempting to hijack the court system and use litigation before the court to advance his own personal agenda and call attention to himself and his cause. His ultimate goal is winning his job back or a large financial settlement …"

Roth is a Lutheran, and believes his firing was a Catholic conspiracy.

"The students who complained about me are Catholic. The administrators who came after me are Catholic. The judges around here are Catholic … It is part of the Catholic beliefs that they should help one another."
Roth fired his union-provided attorney – Irving Friedman – because, as Roth explained, "He wasn’t Catholic, but the person with the union who hired him was."

The teachers union argued for years that Mr. Roth belonged in the classroom!

A public school is not exactly the institution that jumps to mind.

Wal-Mart Effect

Neo-socialists across California are trying, and, in some cases, succeeding, in keeping Wal-Mart out of their community. I am certain that is happening elsewhere as well because non-union Wal-Mart is an easy target for organized labor. As the world’s largest retailer and this nation’s largest employer, it is an easy but well-hardened target.

If you have time to read something REALLY interesting, try a 16-page defense of Wal-Mart written by a man with absolutely impeccable liberal standards. He is Jason Furman, Visiting Scholar at NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. He was economic advisor to former President Clinton and to Sen. John Kerry!

http://www.americanprogress.org/atf/cf/{E9245FE4-9A2B-43C7-A521-5D6FF2E06E03}/WALMART_PROGRESSIVE.PDF

Furman argues that Wal-Mart, the bane of many neo-socialists, is actually the poor people’s best friend because it not only offers low prices, it forces prices lower among other competitors – thereby making Wal-Mart a "progressive success story." I can testify that the attitude of employees at the K-Mart on Kauai improved dramatically after a Wal-Mart was announced, and the inventory and prices of K-Mart improved even more when Wal-Mart arrived! It is generally called the "Wal-Mart effect."

Even the Washington Post has contrasted the $33 billion a year spent for the poor on food stamps with the estimated $260 billion a year saved for the economy by Wal-Mart.

The Furman paper quotes a paper written by two MIT economists, Jerry Hausman and Ephraim Leibtag (also not funded by Wal-Mart) in which they say that "big box stores" in general add $530 a year to the annual income of bottom-quartile food shoppers. (Shopping at Wal-Mart adds 6.5% to their income.) That study ignores all non-food-item advantages.

The labor unions really are attacking Wal-Mart, acting as if the employees are conscripted into service like some modern "press gang." The facts belie this portrayal: A San Diego Union editorial on the Furman paper notes "8,000 applicants for 525 openings at a new Wal-Mart in Glendale, Ariz., or 5,000 applicants for 325 openings in St. Paul, Minn., or 3,000 applicants for 300 openings in Aurora, Colo."

Furman’s study also found that, "Wal-Mart’s health benefits are similar to or better than benefits at comparable employers."

While I am certain that Wal-Mart does effect some negative competitive pressure on some small businesses, at least at the margin, even on tiny Kauai I have seen little evidence of that over the years since their arrival.

The evidence of lower prices and general attitude toward the customer, on the other hand, are obvious.

Progress does tend to have some negative effects (Maude, there are no more buggy-whip shops!), and I am less than happy with Wal-Mart’s tendency to use the power of government to force their way into neighborhoods through the use of eminent domain. The attacks on Wal-Mart are for the wrong reasons, and even those reasons are not justifiable under investigation.

Being a non-union store that donates heavily to the Republican Party, Wal-Mart is a target. For some reason, COSTCO, similar in almost every respect except that some stores are unionized and the corporation donates heavily to the Democrats, is not a target.

Playing for Time

In my most optimistic moments, I think that perhaps we can stay in Iraq long enough to stop the coming civil war, which of course is a religious war. In more lucid moments (pessimism is ALWAYS closer to reality) I know that civil war is almost impossible to avoid

Rationality is the opposite of religion -- but SOME otherwise intelligent people are able to compartmentalize religion.

Iraqi religious fanatics are not more fanatical than any others, they are just 500 years slower.I think that "civilization" is on a slow slope upward , but it is only a thin veneer. I would happily trade more progress for greater depth -- but that is a pipe dream.

One of my reference points is the historical fanaticism of Japan, which certainly existed -- but ended with the peace treaty. Admittedly that was because their "God" (the Emperor) told them to behave and they trusted their religion both to become fanatical and trusted their religion again to become placid. Some similar feature is POSSIBLE in Iraq, but I fully expect the deluge.

I am HOPEFUL that at a small cost of VOLUNTEER blood and relatively unimportant treasure we can hold on long enough for what passes for rationality to appear -- yes, I know, but I would not have predicted today’s relative passivity in Japan either in my pre-teen youth!

The dynamics of the Middle East are such that there is some time at which we will get credit for trying, even if we eventually fail. Everyone draws that line at a different time, some even now. I do know that our premature bug-out from VN cost millions of people, and while I do not think all would have been saved anyway, their blood is on our hands.

I don't want more of it...and there is certainty of that killing should we prematurely withdraw.

At some point, and we can debate that point, we can say -- we tried, then let the buggers kill each other. I view war much like the police view gangs and the Mob -- so long as they only kill each other, no harm, no foul. But on 9/11 "they" escalated their numerous attacks on us, and at some point we may have to turn the Middle East into a parking lot that glows at night...we can again debate the line and the time...

Is it a religious war -- absolutely. But the fanatics will not leave us alone. It is not Christianity against Islam...it is Islam against EVERYONE not Islamic. That puts Jews, Christians...and even atheists in the crosshairs.

Much like the Crusades combined with the worst of the Christian tortures of "heretics." (Anyone NOT a Christian.) Christians then had an 'enlightenment" -- Islam has not.

Much like Tookie and the Duke, Christians have denied or apologized and wish to move on without further penalty. Islamic fanatics want to exact a penalty for offenses made centuries ago by long-dead Christians. . The difference is that in the Crusades and immediately thereafter, the Christians had no particular military advantage except over individuals -- but not against Islam.
Today, they do. At least for awhile...We are playing for TIME. We successfully co-ppted the first Islamic bomb in Pakistan, but have less hope for co-opting the second one in Iran. We may have to rely on tiny Israel to do that for us....

Instant Political Analysis

Not that I have any interest in advising Neo-socialists, but they have worked for several losing elections with two yokes about their necks -- "Tax and spend" and "Weak on defense."

The stupid administration has GIVEN the neo-socialists GREAT cover on the first part of their problem by being even more profligate than their opponents -- but the "strong defense" portion of the neo-socialists cannot stand the prosperity and insist on moving away from their old security wing headed in the recent past by both moderates (Sam Nunn) and liberals (Patrick Moynihan).

Somehow, the Murtha/Pelosi wing now has sway, although some are in flux -- like Kerry who spoke for immediate withdrawal before he spoke against it. (And all in one paragraph!)

Neither of these political parties are "on message" but one party is slightly more nationally acceptable than the other.

The Republican could more easily move closer to their base and nation by stopping over-spending in one nano-second. The Democrats would lose their base by moving closer to the nation, because their base is San Francisco-types!

No Immediate Success in the Middle East

I see more parallels between Iraq and Yugoslavia than Iraq and VN -- Tito and Saddam both keeping otherwise disparate and fractious factions under control through both the force of will and sheer force, but, as bad as the breakup of Yugoslavia has been, and it has been bad, it has not (yet) completely fallen apart.

That is the BEST we can hope for in Iraq. Americans simply do not understand tribal warfare...Northern Europeans grew out of the concept centuries ago, and we Americans have not been saddled with the concept.

There are two concepts completely foreign to us -- religious warfare and tribal warfare. Both are combined in the Middle East. We won the war in Iraq...it is the peace we are having trouble holding. I think the Kurds and the Shiites can co-exist -- but it may take a bloodbath against the Sunni in the middle, to accomplish.

I have little or no confidence in a lasting democracy, but we can claim to have been a catalyst for a beginning, the completion of which may take CENTURIES. After all, we must overcome both tribal and religious hatred.

And, no, I have no idea how to do that, but we have no choice but to try. We broke it, and we own it -- just not forever.

At some point we can say, "We gave you a fighting chance, and you blew it."

Death Penalty Questions

I could be convinced to oppose the death penalty -- IF the life sentences were spent doing REAL HARD TIME!

I mean making little ones out of big ones...no TV, no radio, no music. Someplace that would make Sheriff Arpayo in Arizona look like Martha Stewart, and green bologna sandwiches seem absolutely first-class fare.

But right now I have no problem with the death penalty -- because the convicted felons hate it so much! They do everything possible, for decades and at great expense...even though the felon lobby contends that "life" imprisonment is even worse than "death penalty."

Obviously, life in prison is NOT nearly as bad as death or else those on death row would not fight so hard to avoid the death penalty in favor of staying in jail forever?

The American Criminal Lobby Union is working both ends of the equation -- trying to abandon the death penalty AND making life in prison very cushy!

Tookie is a great candidate for death...I am just sorry that it takes 24 YEARS!

Tookie Gets Closer Despite Misguided Support

Congratulations to Keith Taylor of the Voice of San Diego for his brave but mis-guided opposition to the execution of Tookie Williams. Keith really needs a better agent to support his anti-death penalty views.

Keith told us about Tookie’s literary skills, his numerous Nobel Nominations (although official nominations are kept secret for 50 years), his redemption after founding the CRIPS gangs, the problems with other Governors who have executed people of low IQ (obviously a description not befitting Tookie)…

Keith spent 851 words in Tookie’s defense and never once told his readers anything of the four murders for which Tookie was convicted. The closest Keith can write about Tookie’s series of murders, after a paragraph on Tookie’s activities in founding the "baddest gang," was a single sentence that "Williams ended up convicted of killing four people."

But none of those murders were gang related (although the gang he founded was responsible for THOUSANDS of Los Angeles murders) – the Tookie personal victims were all innocent and unarmed men and women who were defenseless hotel managers or shopkeepers!

No match for his shotgun at very close range!

In the intervening decades, Tookie has been a recognizable person in the press, and in the Courts – both the U.S. Supreme Court and several times to the 9th Circus Court of Appeals – once 15-9. Just this week, the most liberal Court in the nation voted 4-2 against Tookie. Again, and again, and again.

Keith should have at least used the phrase reserved for covering up horrible things, "Mistakes were made…"

Say it Ain't So. Duke!

Say it ain’t so, Duke!

Well it is so, and many of us feel particularly betrayed. My wife and I were early donors to Duke’s first campaign in 1990, based on his Navy service and obvious heroics. My first impression was ‘brave but intellectually dull’ – and probably honest.

I am convinced I was right then, but something changed, and that something has to do with hubris and the water in Washington. It must be difficult for Washington politicians, powerful people all, to have to eat peanut butter sandwiches to support two homes while their "K Street" lobbyist supplicants wear Gucci shoes, Rolex watches, and light cigars with $1,000 bills!

Money, sex and politics are an explosive mixture, but we have tamed gasoline and nuclear energy, so we can tame corruption if we put our minds to it.

Right now there is no constituency for reform. If you can imagine such a thing, the engine for reform in Washington is powered by Senator John McCain – a charter member of the Keating Five.

At some point in a politician’s career there must arise a burning desire to trade some of their power for some of that lucre they don’t have. The smart ones do not leave footprints in the snow. Power attracts money and sex – not necessarily in that order – but both are easily exchanged in Washington for the real medium of exchange – information.

Those willing to exchange sex for information or for levers of power have less to fear from an Attorney General, but an irate spouse is no piece of cake, either. Still, public embarrassment and public humiliation is better than public embarrassment, public humiliation, jail, and impoverishment! Just ask Bill Clinton!

The current climate of corruption among Washington politicians of both political parties is a HUGE argument for moving the seat of government to Denver, Colorado. With any luck, such a move will attract more people with "middle America" values. Such a move would also defeat the entrenched multi-generational federal bureaucracy and put an end to the naturally Eurocentric foreign policy.

Duke was not only corrupt – he was terminally STUPID! Imagine a person of middle income driving a Rolls to a mansion in Rancho Santa Fe. Now there is an anomaly viewable even through the wrong end of a telescope!
There are many ways for a politician to make huge sums of money, and not all are illegal. Politicians who engage in illegal activities get caught with some great regularity – names like Dan Rostenkowski, Bob "The Torch" Torricelli, James "The Hair" Traficant and many others are household names associated with illegality and being stupid enough to get caught.

Lyndon Baines Johnson made an unexplained fortune while working only for the government, so it is possible to get rich and NOT get caught. Bill Clinton, unquestionably the smartest of the bunch, simply set himself up in government so that he could, as a relatively young man, enjoy his fame and make his fortune after his government service.

But no one used his government position to fortune better than John Kerry who married his way quickly up the ladder to serious – very serious – money, and without bringing an Attorney General into his life for so much as an investigation.

Duke was simply not smart enough to work the system, and he was too much into immediate gratification. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal (November 29, 2005) described the near-instant destitution facing families of people convicted of white-collar crime. That article featured Mary Elgindy of Encinitas, the wife of another San Diego scam artist. Her husband was convicted of stock fraud. She is facing the loss of her multi-million dollar home and luxury lifestyle, and is living off the charity of friends. She stayed with her husband after previous brushes with the law, lived large, and now seeks sympathy. The Attorney General who put her husband in jail gave her $10,000 a month in living expenses, and $12,000 a month for her mortgage for a few months. Of course the Attorney General gave her someone else’s money – not his own money. It is easy to be generous with other people’s money.

Every family has different dynamics of course, but it is hard to imagine Duke’s family not comprehending that the Rolls, yacht, antiques, jewelry and beautiful Rancho Santa Fe mansion were not the product of the tooth fairy. By all accounts, Duke’s wife, Nancy, is a nice lady, and I am sure his immediate family members are nice people. While I have a small twinge of sympathy for them, it is fleeting. They knew. Most families know, but they want to enjoy the moment, knowing that few spouses or family members will ever go to jail. Duke;s daughter had a $2,000 college graduation party paid for by a co-conspirator.

Duke’s family will not be pauperized, however, because Duke will retain his Navy retirement pay plus his Congressional retirement pay while he serves his federal prison sentence, and forever thereafter. Former U.S. Representative and felon Dan Rostenkowski collects $110,000 a year in Congressional retirement!
Only the slick can keep the money, and no one ever accused Duke of being slick.

Brave, yes.

Great hand-eye coordination – absolutely world-class.

Slick – I don’t think so.

Audacity –Duke sure has that!

The penny-ante corruption surrounding the San Diego Silly council, government employee union leaders – even the Cheetah lap-dance scandal – were nothing compared to a Rolls-Royce, a yacht, jewelry, antiques, $300,000 in cash and a mansion in Rancho Santa Fe!

For style points, the Duke joins C. Arnholt Smith and J. David Dominelli. I am glad to be shuck of lap dancing and self-dealing government union thugs. At least The Duke brought a little class back to San Diego corruption.

And we should remember that the fame of political life does not always mean making a fortune. Ted Kennedy made a small fortune out of his family’s much larger fortune…