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Rancho Bernardo Real Estate Market Remarks – January 13, 2007 Sales are slow -- but they are better than the public perception. Prices are down over the past 12 months. Drom December 2006, to December 2007, the prices in Rancho Bernardo Zip Code 92127 dropped 18% over that period and Zip Code 92128 dropped 12%. That is a bit misleading because 92127 has a large number of new and expensive 4S Ranch homes...when they fail to sell as happens in a cool market, that skews the sales of more affordable homes. Homes at the same price point in 92127 and 92128 probably fell the same amount, and that is 12%. Over the same period of time, the inventory has gone down substantially, and that argues for stabilization of prices. In 92127 the inventory fell during that 12 month period from 250 to 191. In zip code 92128 the inventory went from 230 to 141. These numbers may be a bit skewed because some (or many) of those may have been withdrawn from the market for the Christmas Holidays. They may come back on the market over the next few weeks -- but I can say with certainty that sales have been good, but not great. Our office sold out the entire inventory of five homes over a 45 day period...and now, after the Holidays, our new listings are coming at about the predicted rate. If you are considering buying a home n RB, look at the price history which you can get from your Realtor. Assuming the Listing Realtor convinced the Seller to list at an appropriate price, homes listed six months ago that have not had price reductions should have the greatest range for negotiation. Homes listed within the past 60-90 days should be priced more closely to the actual market, as should those homes that were listed earlier but have had p-rice adjustments. Remember that Realtors do not set the price of homes. Sellers do. The Realtor may get to express an opinion but it's the Sellers home and they can put any price they please on the home. The Realtor then gets to decide if the home is worth spending their time and marketing dollar on that price. In the end, the bank is the final arbiter. The Buyer and Seller may agree on an absolutely outrageous price, but the lending agency will only appraise the property for something near the actual value. To protect yourself, if you have a lender you will be automatically be protected because the lender will not lend unlimited funds. If you are a "cash buyer" make certain the box on the first page is checked that the home must meet the appraised value -- then hire an independent appraiser to appraise the property! That keeps the emotions in check. |
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